U.S.-Egypt: How Relations Could Change With A Trump Return To The White House

Egyptian files

During former President Hosni Mubarak's rule, successive American administrations — from Ronald Reagan through to George W. Bush — viewed the relationship with Egypt through five distinct dossiers:

At the forefront is maintaining peace with Israel. Other files include military and security cooperation; and Cairo’s ability to provide political cover for American movements in the region, the economic cooperation which focused on linking Egypt’s economy to American companies.

The repercussions of the Israeli war in Gaza will continue, even if the military operations stop.

Trump will likely try to rearrange the priorities of U.S.-Egyptian relations according to the tense issue in the regions. Certainly, when he enters the White House in January 2025, (if he wins) the repercussions of the Israeli war in Gaza will continue, even if the military operations stop.

That will likely push Trump to announce his position on international demands to implement the two-state solution, which includes Israeli concessions that neither party in Israel's political equation wants to offer.

Trump will also try to activate “the Deal of the Century” which included a Palestinian state without sovereignty, without Jerusalem and without most of the territories Israel occupied in the 1967 war. That deal will need political cover from the Arab countries, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

It is likely that Trump will try to implement the vision of his son-in-law and advisor, Jared Kushner, regarding Gaza.

Kushner said in an event at Harvard University in February that the part located on the waterfront in Gaza is “very valuable” for real estate and tourism exploitation, and that if he had the decision-making power in Israel, he would do his best to “move people (of Gaza) out and clean it up.”

If the Trump administration adopts Kushner's vision for Gaza, this will escalate political and security tension in the region, and of course Cairo will be required to engage in efforts to dissuade Trump from following that route.

Trump trade-offs

During the Reagan administration, Egyptian military support for the U.S. efforts to support the mujahideen in Afghanistan was one of the broader outgrowths of the military cooperation between the two countries.

Cairo also provided political cover for the U.S. military mobilization to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation in 1991. It was an important matter for the George H.W. Bush administration, which led to Egypt being exempted from a large amount of its military debt.

During the administrations of President Bill Clinton and President George W. Bush, security cooperation between Egypt and the American intelligence community was a file equal in importance to the one maintaining peace with Israel due to the United States’ involvement in its war against al Qaeda.

At the same time, U.S. administrations were interested in economic agreements to increase Egyptian exports to the United States in order to ensure the achievement of American goals in the relationship with Cairo.

During the Obama administration, the American agenda on Egypt changed. After the overthrow of Mubarak, it was important to ensure the preservation of the peace treaty with Israel. Military and security cooperation became less important to the Obama administration, which shifted its interest to human rights and democracy, which was reflected in statements of Obama administration officials during their visit to Cairo.

Back to a deal-making administration

As for Trump, his administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East was preoccupied by many topics, on top of which was the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran.

Such topics also included the confusion surrounding the American military presence in northern Syria; tensions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and of course involvement in the Gulf crisis and the severe tension in relations between Washington’s allies in the region. There was also his attempt to market the Deal of the Century, which he considered the last best chance to end of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

During his next term, (if he wins), Trump is expected to return to his favorite policy of deal-making in pure short-term U.S. interests.

Support, but not for free

Of course, Cairo will be in urgent need of major financial support to address its deep economic crisis. Trump is likely to try to barter his administration's support for Cairo through grants and economic aid in exchange for it being a partner in a new deal of the century that would include his approach to the two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There is also the dispute over Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam. Cairo is expected to ask Trump to help address this issue, which was ignored by the Biden administration. Trump’s support for Cairo will not come for free.

For Cairo, Trump's return provokes both optimism and concern.

There is also the Sudanese crisis, and whether Trump will play an active role in ending the fighting there by pressuring the allies of the two military powers, or whether he will maintain the Biden administration’s policy: releasing statements and holding meetings, without serious action to stop the fighting and begin the phase of rebuilding Sudan.

Just as Trump appeared during his four years in the White House like a raging hurricane aiming to overthrow all American presidential traditions, his expected return will not be without confusion for his regional allies.

For Cairo, Trump's return provokes both optimism and concern: Optimism because of his past as a supporter of the political regime, and concern over his political deals that herald a permanent solution and only produce a further explosion in the region.