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Natural gas has become the go-to fuel globally to lower CO2 emissions and backup wind and solar, power sources that are naturally intermittent. The best modeling agencies confirm that gas demand increases under any practical energy policy scenario No wonder: from 2010 to 2018, global gas use boomed nearly 25% to around 375 Bcf/d. That's a daily consumption figure that is almost five times what the U.S. uses - easily the world's largest market. And now, the U.S. Department of Energy just projected that global gas use will rise another 40-45% by 2050.
China, of course, has been the fastest growing gas user, with demand more than tripling over the past decade to become third globally. China could double gas demand by 2030 as it uses gas to displace coal to clear smoggy skies Interestingly, Iran's 5 million natural gas cars is only second to China. And the Middle East's power sector is also second to that of China in terms of largest incremental gas demand needs of any single sector around the world. Now closing in on having 1.4 billion people, however, it might be India that has the most incremental potential of all longer-term. At just ~6 Bcf/d per day, India uses as much gas as California does - despite having 35 times more people.
Africa, holding 16% of the global population and having hundreds of millions without electricity access, consumes just 4% of the world's gas. Yet, the future must be brighter because the continent is adding half of the new global population. Fortunately, Africa's 7% share of global gas reserves, which is destined to rise as it gets developed, should help local economies grow and lift human development. "Oil And Natural Gas Companies Could Be Heroes In Africa." Indeed, energy poverty has been become an afterthought, routinely and horrifically unmentioned by global leaders.
The rising LNG market is quickly turning natural gas, long a regional product with distinct markets, more into a global commodity like oil. Americans should therefore know that as we become even more of an active player in the global LNG market, our supplies will be critical to meeting new demand. That's because Iran, Qatar, and Russia hold half of total proven gas reserves.
Russia is at a great advantage because its companies are endlessly backed by Vladimir Putin's government, pushing a grand strategy to leverage Russian energy for more global political power. Moreover, Russia has slow growing incremental needs, so its capacity to export will only expand. In fact, Russia's gas demand has risen just 7% over the past decade or so. With production up 25% over that time, even Russia's spare capacity for production is huge, in the 10-15 Bcf/d range.
Further, the Middle East's production is up nearly 50%, a more unstable region that will make the globalizing market less predictable unless the U.S. is willing to leverage its shale gas to counter. Although having growing needs itself, the Middle East already holds nearly half of the world's proven gas (not to mention half of the oil). Again, all of this is just another reason why being unrealistic and being anti-gas only plays into the hands of Vladimir Putin and less stable regimes that often trample on human rights. U.S. LNG exports must have bi-partisan support to pushback.
