2025 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions and best bets for ‘The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports’

The calendar has officially turned to May, which means it’s time for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby. The annual horse race at Louisville’s Churchill Downs is scheduled for Saturday at approximately 6:57pm ET.

The “Run for the Roses” is not only one of the most iconic sporting events every year, but also one of the biggest betting events on the calendar. The initial draw for this year‘s field included 20 horses, led by betting favorite Journalism with morning line odds of 3-1.

Can Journalism break a five-year streak of favorites falling short? Who are the other strong contenders, and which longshots are worth betting on?

Make yourself a mint julep and put on your floppiest hat as we dive into some Kentucky Derby predictions, picks, and best bets.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds

Let’s start with the morning line odds for the 19-horse field. Remember that in horse betting, the morning line odds are the expected closing odds as determined by the track’s handicapper.

The actual odds will fluctuate based on the betting action as the race approaches, and won’t be locked in until right before the race begins.

What started as a 20-horse field has dwindled to 19 after two horses were scratched – No. 4 Rodriguez and No. 10 Grande. That opened a spot for the only other eligible horse, Baeza, to enter the field.

2025 Kentucky Derby betting favorites

There are three horses with morning line odds better than 10-1: Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1), and Sandman (6-1). Let’s break down these top contenders.

Journalism (3-1)

Journalism is the fastest horse in the field and deserves to be the betting favorite. He has won four races in a row, including the Santa Anita Derby on April 5.

He registered a 108 Speed rating at Santa Anita, which was the fastest of any horse in the field. He also showed some toughness in that race, overcoming some early trouble before winning by three-quarters of a length.

Look for Journalism to stalk the leaders after starting from his middle post position. That will be a challenge in a much bigger field than he has run in his previous races, which averaged just six horses.

With more frontrunners ahead of him this time, Journalism may need to exert more energy to keep pace before making his late push down the stretch.

That is nothing that a horse of his caliber cannot overcome, but it does pose some risk with betting on him.

Sovereignty (5-1)

Sovereignty has two wins and two second-place finishes on his record, including a win at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense Stakes in October.

His last race was a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby, which is traditionally the most predictive prep race. The Florida Derby winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 24 times, more than any other race.

If the Florida Derby had been 1-¼ miles like the Kentucky Derby instead of 1-⅛, then Sovereignty may have surpassed the winner, Tappan Street.

He is one of the strongest closers in the field and was charging hard at the end of that race, but ended up losing by 1-¼ lengths. The extra ⅛-mile could benefit him this time around.

One note of caution: Sovereignty reached a top speed rating of 99 at the Florida Derby, but has not topped 100 in any of his five races. Thirteen of the last 15 Derby winners reached triple digits at least once, and there are 11 horses in the current field that have reached that mark.

That doesn’t mean Sovereignty could not do it, especially if he puts together his best race yet, which might just be enough for this strong closer to reach the winner‘s circle.

Sandman (6-1)

This will be Sandman’s fourth race at Churchill Downs, with the previous three coming as a two-year old. Unfortunately, those previous three races were the three slowest runs of his career.

On the plus side, Sandman’s last race was his best, a win in the Arkansas Derby on March 29. He registered his top speed rating of 101 in that race and won by 2-½ lengths over fellow Derby entrant Publisher.

That was Sandman’s third career win, but his overall record is not as strong as the first two favorites. Sovereignty has just as many top-two finishes but in three fewer starts, while Journalism has won four out of five.

Sandman’s team also has a less impressive resume than the other two favorites. His trainer, Mark Casse, is 0-for-10 in his Derby career, and jockey Jose Ortiz is 0-for-9.

Journalism’s trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli also lack any Derby wins on their resumes, but only have three combined entries between them. Sovereignty trainer Bill Mott has one Derby win in 13 races, while jockey Junior Alvarado is 0-for-5.

None of those resumes is particularly noteworthy, but Sandman’s team definitively has the worst record of the bunch.

2025 Kentucky Derby best bets

Of the three favorites, the one I am most likely to include on my betting slip is Journalism. The speed and the resume is just too good to ignore, and both Sovereignty and Sandman have more cause for concern.

Given the recent history of the Derby, I would also prefer to get a few longshots onto my card to pump up my potential winnings.

My favorite straight bet this year is a show bet on Journalism. To win that bet, the betting favorite would need to finish in the top three. At the time of writing, a $5 show bet on Journalism is expected to pay out between $11 and $13.50, which is solid value for such a strong horse.

Of course, we want to get more action on this race than just a show bet on the favorite. My preferred strategy to chase a bigger payout is to bet a trifecta box with Journalism and a few longshots.

If you pick Journalism and two other horses, and bet $2 on each combination, the bet will cost you $12. If you add a fourth horse to the mix, the total cost jumps to $48, which is still a reasonable price for a potentially nice payout. So let’s pick a few longshots to build a four-horse trifecta box with Journalism.

The first horse I’m adding to my ticket is Baeza, who registered the second-highest speed rating of any horse in the field with a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby.

Baeza lost to Journalism by just three-quarters of a length in that race. He is a late bloomer who figures to improve on that performance and has a real shot to win this race outright.

Baeza’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is an experienced jockey with five top-three finishes in the Derby including a win in 2019. Baeza also has an excellent pedigree as the half brother of 2023 Derby champ Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. There’s a lot to like about Baeza’s chances to finish in the top three and potentially win the whole thing.

Next, I’m looking at Burnham Square, who is the best value to bet on among the closers in the field (Sandman, Sovereignty, Tiztastic, Publish, Final Gambit, and Flying Mohawk). Burnham Square has gotten faster every time he has run, and his last race was an impressive victory in the Blue Grass Stakes.

The Blue Grass was jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.’s first race with Burnham Square. Hernandez Jr. won last year‘s Derby with Mystik Dan. It might be a longshot for him to win two-in-a-row, but Burnham Square has a great chance to finish strong and crack the top three.

Those would be my two picks in a three-horse trifecta, with the next pick being Japanese qualifier Luxor Cafe. The rap on Luxor Cafe is that a Japanese horse has never won the Derby, and he is not considered to be as strong as Forever Young, the Japanese runner who finished third last year.

However, Luxor Cafe has won his last four races and has received good reports from his training sessions at Churchill Downs. He’s also the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. That sounds like the profile of a horse that could make history.

Learn more about our gaming editorial staff.

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.