As of Thursday’s close, crude oil futures were down $1.16 or 1.81% on the week, with prices struggling to hold any meaningful rebound in the face of renewed geopolitical tension, potential supply growth, and macroeconomic headwinds. Though the market attempted to stabilize after early-week losses, sentiment remained fragile as traders weighed risks tied to Iran, OPEC+ output decisions, and the global trade environment.
Iran Supply Fears Stir Market Volatility
Oil began the week under pressure as optimism grew around U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Reports that both sides were drafting a potential agreement sparked concerns that Iranian crude could return to the market sooner than expected. The mere possibility of increased Iranian exports injected immediate downside risk as traders braced for a looser global supply picture.
By midweek, the narrative shifted when the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on an Iranian shipping network moving crude and liquid petroleum gas, briefly restoring some support to prices. These back-and-forth developments left markets whipsawed by conflicting signals, illustrating the elevated sensitivity of crude pricing to any headlines around Iranian supply.
Macro Worries Cap Bullish Scenarios
Economic signals throughout the week provided little support. Tariff-driven uncertainty continued to dominate the macro conversation, with President Trump renewing pressure on the Federal Reserve and stoking market anxiety over U.S. monetary…
As of Thursday’s close, crude oil futures were down $1.16 or 1.81% on the week, with prices struggling to hold any meaningful rebound in the face of renewed geopolitical tension, potential supply growth, and macroeconomic headwinds. Though the market attempted to stabilize after early-week losses, sentiment remained fragile as traders weighed risks tied to Iran, OPEC+ output decisions, and the global trade environment.
Iran Supply Fears Stir Market Volatility
Oil began the week under pressure as optimism grew around U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Reports that both sides were drafting a potential agreement sparked concerns that Iranian crude could return to the market sooner than expected. The mere possibility of increased Iranian exports injected immediate downside risk as traders braced for a looser global supply picture.
By midweek, the narrative shifted when the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on an Iranian shipping network moving crude and liquid petroleum gas, briefly restoring some support to prices. These back-and-forth developments left markets whipsawed by conflicting signals, illustrating the elevated sensitivity of crude pricing to any headlines around Iranian supply.
Macro Worries Cap Bullish Scenarios
Economic signals throughout the week provided little support. Tariff-driven uncertainty continued to dominate the macro conversation, with President Trump renewing pressure on the Federal Reserve and stoking market anxiety over U.S. monetary policy. While later softening his stance and indicating potential tariff flexibility in talks with China, investor confidence remained shaky.
The IMF added to the gloom by slashing its U.S. growth forecast to 1.8%, citing trade friction and weakening consumer data. Inflation expectations were also revised higher, compounding fears that tight monetary conditions could suppress growth further. A Reuters poll highlighted that nearly half of economists now see a U.S. recession within a year—another red flag for future oil demand.
Fresh concerns emerged after reports that several OPEC+ members may push for faster output increases starting in June. This possibility added to the bearish tone, especially as the alliance remains under scrutiny for uneven compliance and internal tensions. Kazakhstan’s continued overproduction has frustrated fellow members, raising questions about the group’s unity.
Analysts warned that boosting output at a time when global growth is slowing and trade pressures remain unresolved could overwhelm the market. Bob Yawger of Mizuho Energy Futures noted that OPEC+ “would be hard-pressed to pick a worse time to add barrels” given ongoing macro strain and the potential return of Iranian supply.
Inventory Data Provides Mixed Demand Signals
U.S. inventory data offered a patchy picture of domestic demand. The Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected crude build of 244,000 barrels, countering expectations for a draw. However, gasoline and distillate stocks dropped significantly—down 4.5 million and 2.4 million barrels, respectively—indicating solid product demand.
Jet fuel consumption stood out, with a four-week average of 1.86 million barrels per day—the highest since late 2019—signaling robust travel-related demand as the peak season approaches. Still, overall crude demand signals remain muddled, limiting conviction in any sustained upside.
WTI remains exposed to downside risk heading into Friday’s session. Persistent supply uncertainty tied to Iran, looming OPEC+ production increases, and global economic strain continue to outweigh isolated signs of demand strength. Without a shift in core fundamentals or a meaningful resolution to trade tensions, rallies are likely to remain short-lived.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. It changed to down after heavy selling pressure took out a pair of main bottoms at $60.73 and $58.67 nearly a month ago. A trade through $71.64 will change the main trend to up.
The long-term range is $52.45 to $84.90. Its 50% level is $68.67. This is major resistance. Trading on the bearish side of this key level is also a sign of weakness. Additional resistance is the 52-week moving average at $69.00.
The short-term range is $71.64 to $54.48. The market has been straddling its pivot at $63.06 all week, suggesting trader indecision and impending volatility.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending May 2 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $63.06.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $63.06 will signal the presence of strong buyers. If this creates enough momentum, we could see a possible near-term rally into the long-term pivot at $68.67 and the 52-week moving average at $69.00.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $63.06 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at $59.67, followed by the minor bottom at $54.48. If heavy selling pressure fuels enough downside momentum then prices could hit $50.00 fairly easily due to the absence of new buyers.
Market Outlook: Short-Term Bearish with Geopolitical Risk Overhang
The near-term outlook for crude remains bearish. Geopolitical risk, uneven macro data, and unresolved supply-side pressures suggest traders will stay defensive into week’s end. While surprise inventory draws or trade de-escalation could offer support, the broader environment favors cautious positioning. Until clearer direction emerges, sellers remain in control.
Technically, the pivot at $63.06 is contributing to the trader indecision. A sustained move over this level will indicate the presence of buyers. This could fuel a surge in upside momentum since the nearest resistance is $68.67 to $69.00.
If an upside breakout fails to materialize and selling pressure under $63.06 increases, then look for a sharp break into a least $59.67
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