Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Hints that German and French energy firms might resume Russian gas imports mark more than just economic desperation—they signal Europe's quiet recalibration of strategic autonomy. With U.S.-EU ties fraying under Trump-era foreign policy shifts and Qatar LNG talks going nowhere, some EU players see Russian gas as a necessary evil to preserve industrial competitiveness. While publicly committed to decoupling from Moscow, Berlin and Paris may be preparing for a "cold peace" in Ukraine that allows for limited energy re-engagement without political reconciliation. If flows resume—especially via Nord Stream 2—it could fracture EU unity on sanctions and expose the bloc’s Achilles' heel: energy security still trumping geopolitical resolve.
Erik Prince (former Blackwater CEO and Trump ally) has launched his own “private” initiative ostensibly to help the DRC get full control over its huge critical mineral reserves, and monetize it. Reuters sources confirmed that DRC signed the deal in January, right before a significant escalation of the insurgency in neighboring Rwanda. It remains unclear what role Prince is playing in the wider developments here, but insurgents have since seized two major cities in eastern DRC, which will quickly become a major complication for the Trump administration’s plans to get their hands on DRC minerals, via Prince.
The markets remained in a state of cautious panic at the end of the week, after the whiplash…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Hints that German and French energy firms might resume Russian gas imports mark more than just economic desperation—they signal Europe's quiet recalibration of strategic autonomy. With U.S.-EU ties fraying under Trump-era foreign policy shifts and Qatar LNG talks going nowhere, some EU players see Russian gas as a necessary evil to preserve industrial competitiveness. While publicly committed to decoupling from Moscow, Berlin and Paris may be preparing for a "cold peace" in Ukraine that allows for limited energy re-engagement without political reconciliation. If flows resume—especially via Nord Stream 2—it could fracture EU unity on sanctions and expose the bloc’s Achilles' heel: energy security still trumping geopolitical resolve.
Erik Prince (former Blackwater CEO and Trump ally) has launched his own “private” initiative ostensibly to help the DRC get full control over its huge critical mineral reserves, and monetize it. Reuters sources confirmed that DRC signed the deal in January, right before a significant escalation of the insurgency in neighboring Rwanda. It remains unclear what role Prince is playing in the wider developments here, but insurgents have since seized two major cities in eastern DRC, which will quickly become a major complication for the Trump administration’s plans to get their hands on DRC minerals, via Prince.
The markets remained in a state of cautious panic at the end of the week, after the whiplash caused by Trump’s move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%--retaliation for retaliation, and so on. In nearly the same breath, Trump indicated a potential de escalation of the tariff warfare, giving markets a moment to level out.
While the U.S. and Iran gear up for a second round of nuclear talks this weekend in Rome, the U.S. has simultaneously intensified its bombing of Houthi targets in Yemen. U.S. airstrikes struck the Houthi-controlled Ras Isa oil port, killing at least 20 people and wounding scores of others.
Discovery & Development
BP (BP.L) just struck oil in the U.S. Gulf at its Far South prospect in Green Canyon Block 584, about 120 miles off Louisiana. Both the primary well and a sidetrack hit hydrocarbons, and early data points to commercial volumes. The discovery aligns with BP’s February strategy shift, where it slashed renewables investment and doubled down on oil and gas, aiming for 400,000 boepd from the Gulf and up to 2.5M boepd globally by 2030. BP holds 57.5% of the project, with Chevron (CVX) owning the rest.
ExxonMobil’s (XOM) Elektra-1 well offshore Cyprus came up short, with the energy ministry confirming only non-commercial gas volumes were found in Block 5. Despite initial optimism based on seismic data, the well failed to deliver a viable discovery, though it did confirm the presence of a working hydrocarbon system and quality reservoirs. The joint venture with QatarEnergy will now shift drilling operations to Pegasus-1 in a different part of Cyprus’s EEZ. Data from Elektra-1 is still under review to determine next steps in the block.
Turkey and Pakistan are partnering to explore what could be the world’s fourth-largest offshore oil and gas deposit, located in Pakistan’s Makran and Indus basins. The two nations signed a joint bidding agreement covering 40 offshore blocks, with local firms teaming up with Turkey’s TPAO. A three-year seismic survey reportedly revealed reserves rivaling those of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, though international interest has been scant due to Pakistan’s ongoing security issues. If tapped, the reserves could be a game-changer for Pakistan’s economy, which is also eyeing deep-sea minerals and a broader “blue economy” strategy.
Shell’s Selene gas prospect in the UK North Sea just got a 33% upgrade in estimated recoverable gas reserves after new core data showed stronger-than-expected porosity and permeability. Deltic Energy (25% stake) now pegs gross 2C contingent resources at 174 Bcf, up from prior estimates, boosting the project's NPV10 by around 45%. The Leman B-Sand interval is proving especially productive, with the JV aiming for FID in early 2027. Both partners have entered the second license phase and are pushing ahead with development planning despite Deltic still seeking funding to hold its position.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
In an amendment, the Amplify Energy (NYSE: AMPY) and Juniper Capital merger deal now has Juniper now contributing an extra $10M in cash to help reduce the combined entity’s net debt. The move comes amid shareholder feedback and recent oil price volatility, reinforcing confidence in the merger’s long-term value. Updated hedge data shows both companies have locked in major portions of their 2025–2026 oil production—Amplify at up to 85% and Juniper at 70%—helping shield against further commodity price swings. Amplify will issue 26.7M shares to Juniper and assume $133M in net debt once the deal closes.
Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC is exploring a potential bid for Aethon Energy’s U.S. natural gas assets, which are primarily based in the Haynesville shale and valued at around $10B. The move would expand ADNOC’s growing LNG and gas footprint following its 2023 stake in NextDecade’s (NEXT) Texas export terminal and long-term supply deal. Aethon, one of the largest private U.S. gas producers, has also been weighing a possible IPO. ADNOC isn’t alone in the talks, with other unnamed parties reportedly circling the deal.
Kuwait is merging state-owned KNPC and KIPIC to boost efficiency across its oil and refining operations, with KNPC set to absorb KIPIC and its Al Zour refinery assets. The merger announcement follows broader Gulf consolidation trends as companies feel pressure from lower oil prices and trade tensions. While not directly tied to the Emir’s suspension of parliament, the political shift likely eased the path for the long-planned restructuring. With over 3M bpd in production capacity, Kuwait is aiming to modernize its energy sector as global dynamics shift.
Trio Petroleum has officially acquired Novacor’s TWP48 assets in Saskatchewan’s Lloydminster heavy oil region, with TWP47 expected to close soon. The deal, worth $650K in cash and 526,536 Trio shares, gives Trio access to seven producing wells yielding 70 bpd, plus six additional re-entry and reactivation opportunities. An August 2024 reserve report estimates 91.5 million barrels of proved and probable reserves, with more upside via multilateral drilling in the Sparky GP. Novacor will stay on as operator, and Trio plans aggressive growth in a basin already home to major players like CVE, CNQ, and BTE.
Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST) has acquired Petronas' 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica (LACh) block for $900M cash, $300M in deferred payments, and over 7.2M ADS shares, gaining major ground in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale. LACh, operated by YPF, produced 79,543 boe/d in Q4 2024 and holds 280 MMboe in P1 reserves, with 400 additional drilling locations estimated. Vista’s Q4 pro forma production jumps nearly 50% to 125,048 boe/d, and the deal consolidates 57,000 bbl/d in midstream transport and 48,000 bbl/d in export capacity. With 73% EBITDA margins and strategic synergies from proximity to Vista’s hub, the move significantly boosts Vista’s cash flow profile and drilling runway.
Fort Worth-based USEDC just pulled off its largest acquisition ever, snapping up 20,000 net acres in Texas' Reeves and Ward Counties to expand its Permian Basin footprint. The deal brings proved production plus a multi-year drilling runway, and comes alongside a boosted credit facility—now $300M, up from $165M—with a $500M cap. USEDC plans to deploy a dedicated rig on the acreage and invest up to $1B in U.S. oil and gas in 2025, following $850M spent last year. The move strengthens its reserves and scale, keeping pace with aggressive Permian consolidation.Hints of resumed Russian gas imports by German and French energy firms suggest a European recalibration of strategic autonomy amidst shifting geopolitical landscapes.
