US stocks were choppy amid mixed data and trade updates - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were mixed and the major indices finished mostly negative albeit within contained ranges amid limited trade updates and after mixed data releases. In terms of the recent trade developments, the US implemented a review on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports ahead of Trump's planned tariff announcements on the separate sectors and reports suggested China has ordered a halt to Boeing jet deliveries, while the EU reportedly expects US tariffs to remain as talks made little progress and Canada provided a temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs for goods imported from the US that are used in manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging. Furthermore, US data was mixed as the NY Fed Manufacturing headline was better than expected as were some of the internals, although prices paid rose back into expansionary territory and the 6-month economic outlook deteriorated.
• USD was firmer on Tuesday and snapped a 3-day losing streak as it benefitted from an unwinding in some of the recent strength in the EUR, CHF, and CAD. On the trade front, the White House Press Secretary said over 15 trade deal proposals are actively being considered and they believe they can announce some very soon, although the EU expects US tariffs to remain amid little progress in talks and after the US rejected the EU's proposal to remove all tariffs on industrial goods, while US-China relations worsened with China ordering a halt to Boeing jet deliveries. Participants also digested several data releases which were mixed as import prices unexpectedly cooled in March and export prices were flat, while NY Fed manufacturing improved more than expected but prices paid rose back into expansionary territory and the outlook worsened.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Machinery Orders, Australian Leading Index, Chinese GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales & House Prices, Comments from Fed's Cook, Supply from Australia.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Japanese Machinery Orders, Australian Leading Index, Chinese GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales & House Prices, Comments from Fed's Cook, Supply from Australia.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were mixed and the major indices finished mostly negative albeit within contained ranges amid limited trade updates and after mixed data releases. In terms of the recent trade developments, the US implemented a review on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports ahead of Trump's planned tariff announcements on the separate sectors and reports suggested China has ordered a halt to Boeing jet deliveries, while the EU reportedly expects US tariffs to remain as talks made little progress and Canada provided a temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs for goods imported from the US that are used in manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging. Furthermore, US data was mixed as the NY Fed Manufacturing headline was better than expected as were some of the internals, although prices paid rose back into expansionary territory and the 6-month economic outlook deteriorated.
• SPX -0.17% at 5,397, NDX +0.18% at 18,830, DJI -0.38% at 40,369, RUT +0.11% at 1,883.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US President Trump posted "Our farmers are GREAT... they are always put on the Front Line with our adversaries, such as China, whenever there is a Trade negotiation or, in this case, a Trade War...The USA will PROTECT OUR FARMERS!!!".
• White House Press Secretary stated over 15 trade deal proposals are actively being considered and they believe they can announce some very soon, while she noted that President Trump is maintaining his position on Canada. Furthermore, she commented that the ball is in China's court and that they don't have to make a deal with them but added that President Trump is open to a deal with China and stated that relief is being considered for farmers.
• White House source told Politico that Australia “is a little less complex in terms of their internal politics” than the UK.
• Canada is to provide temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs for goods imported from the US that are used in manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, according to the Finance Ministry.
• EU expects US tariffs to remain as talks make little progress and US officials indicated that most US tariffs on the EU will not be removed, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, it was reported that the "EU has offered to remove all tariffs on industrial goods, including cars, but the US has rejected the proposal, and instead suggested that some tariffs could be offset by increasing investments and exports".
• EU spokesperson said the EU needs an "additional level" of engagement by the US to keep trade talks going and EU safety standards are not part of talks.
• UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will travel to Beijing to revive a key trade dialogue with China months after saying it had been naive to allow Chinese investment in sensitive sectors, according to The Guardian.
• China's Foreign Ministry said they will trade with "more friends and become a stronger magnet for investment", while it added facing external uncertainty, they will stay committed to "joining hands rather than throwing punches".
• China ordered a halt to Boeing (BA) jet deliveries as the trade war expands, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Beijing asked Chinese carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies.
• India trade official said the US and India have signed terms of reference for a trade deal and the next round of India-EU talks are in May, while the official said India-UK trade negotiators are working to resolve pending issues and that trade liberalisation with the US will include tariff and non-tariff barriers. The official also noted that rising US costs may prompt countries like China, Vietnam and Indonesia to divert goods to India, while Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the US could increase flows of US agricultural products to India.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• White House said President Trump has not made a determination on raising the corporate tax rate, while the White House Press Secretary said President Trump will sign a memorandum aimed at stopping ineligible people from claiming social security benefits.

DATA RECAP

• US NY Fed Manufacturing (Apr) -8.1 vs. Exp. -14.5 (Prev. -20.0)
• US NY Fed Manufacturing New Orders Index -8.8 (prev. -14.9)
• US NY Fed Manufacturing Prices Paid Index +50.8 (prev. +44.9)
• US NY Fed Manufacturing Employment Index -2.6 (prev. -4.1)
• US Export Prices MM (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.5%)
• US Import Prices MM (Mar) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.2%)

FX

• USD was firmer on Tuesday and snapped a 3-day losing streak as it benefitted from an unwinding in some of the recent strength in the EUR, CHF, and CAD. On the trade front, the White House Press Secretary said over 15 trade deal proposals are actively being considered and they believe they can announce some very soon, although the EU expects US tariffs to remain amid little progress in talks and after the US rejected the EU's proposal to remove all tariffs on industrial goods, while US-China relations worsened with China ordering a halt to Boeing jet deliveries. Participants also digested several data releases which were mixed as import prices unexpectedly cooled in March and export prices were flat, while NY Fed manufacturing improved more than expected but prices paid rose back into expansionary territory and the outlook worsened.
• EUR was mildly pressured and retreated to a sub-1.1300 territory against the dollar amid pessimism regarding EU-US trade talks and with the single currency also not helped by mixed data releases including the weak German ZEW data.
• GBP continued its advances and reclaimed the 1.3200 handle with recent upside spurred after stronger-than-expected UK employment data.
• JPY marginally weakened against the firmer buck but with upside in USD/JPY capped amid the somewhat drab risk mood and softer US yields.
• Canadian CPI Inflation MM (Mar) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Canadian CPI Inflation YY (Mar) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes bid continued in the aftermath of recent comments from Treasury officials including Treasury Secretary Bessent who noted after-hours on Monday that the US is a long way away from needing contingency plans, but did state that all options are on the table if needed, including boosting Treasury buybacks, while the US Deputy Treasury Secretary stated that conversations are occurring on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio and that they are investigating the extent that the SLR could be binding in times of stress. Of note, if the Treasury were to remove US Treasuries from the SLR as it did during COVID, it would boost Treasury liquidity with banks being able to hold more Treasuries on their balance sheet which would suit President Trump's push for lower yields too and help ease any liquidity concerns in the Treasury market following the recent sell-off.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were marginally lower in choppy trade as the focus centred around further trade retaliation from China, IEA OMR, and geopolitical updates.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.4mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -3.2mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline -3.0mln (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
• IEA OMR cut 2025 oil demand forecasts amid tariffs with 2025 growth forecast cut to 730k BPD from 1.03mln BPD, while it sees a 2026 surplus.
• Chinese Ambassador to Russia said China will raise Russia's LNG purchases this year.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Hamas will respond to the Israeli proposal for a Gaza ceasefire in 48 hours, according to AFP cited by Sky News Arabia.
• Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei is pessimistic about US intentions in Iran-US talks in Oman and said Tehran should not tie its national affairs to talks with the US, while he said the first steps in talks were "carried out in a good way" but he is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic about the talks.
• IRGC said Iran's military capabilities are 'red lines' in any talks with the US, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US President Trump held a meeting on Tuesday morning in the White House situation room about the ongoing nuclear deal negotiations with Iran, according to two sources with direct knowledge cited by Axios.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks with the US on a minerals deal were positive and more meetings are to come.
• White House press secretary said President Trump believes Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine.
• US reportedly derailed the G7 statement to condemn the Russian strike on Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.
• Russia's Kremlin said there is "enormous potential" for US-Russia mutual cooperation which can "help stabilise the world" and comments it will not talk about a time frame for a Ukraine settlement. It also stated it highly rates what it calls positive and substantive contacts with the US and noted there is no clear outline for a deal now but there is political will to move in the direction of an agreement.
• Russia's head of the foreign intelligence service Naryshkin said Russia continues to comply with the moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes, while he warned in the event of NATO aggression against Russia or Belarus, damage will be inflicted on NATO as a whole with Poland and Baltic states to suffer first, according to RIA.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Chinese Premier Li urged Chinese foreign trade companies to diversify markets and said there is relatively big room for China's property market development, while they will make greater efforts in stabilising employment and people's income. Furthermore, they will calmly deal with difficulties and challenges from external shocks, as well as make greater effort to boost consumption and expand domestic demands.
• As lawmakers pressure regulators and exchanges to "delist" or remove China-based stocks if they violate US disclosure laws, the latest Co. to come under scrutiny by Congress is Webull Global (BULL), according to FBN's Gasparino citing sources.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB Bank Lending Survey showed credit standards for loans to firms tightened slightly further and net loan demand moved back into slightly negative territory.

DATA RECAP

• UK Employment Change (Feb) 206k vs. Exp. 174k (Prev. 144k)
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%)
• UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Feb) 5.9% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 5.9%, Rev. 5.8%)
• German Wholesale Price Index MM (Mar) -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%)
• German Wholesale Price Index YY (Mar) 1.3% (Prev. 1.6%)
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) -14.0 vs. Exp. 9.5 (Prev. 51.6)
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Apr) -81.2 vs. Exp. -86.8 (Prev. -87.6)
• EU Industrial Production MM (Feb) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.6%)
• EU Industrial Production YY (Feb) 1.2% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Rev. -0.5%)