Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Trump has accused Mexico of violating a 1944 water treaty by failing to deliver enough water to Texas, harming farmers in the south and leading to the closure of a sugar mill. Trump is threatening tariffs over the issue, also mentioning sanctions (however, tariffs and sanctions seem to be conjoined in the administration).
We are keeping a close eye on developments between Israel and Turkey, who are at dangerous odds over the future of Syria, with both external actors now homing in on Assad’s old military bases. Israel is bombing them, and Turkey is moving into them. Syria is still up for grabs, and the U.S. has not recognized any actors as the new government.
The Russia-Ukraine war has largely been forgotten amid the tariff and market chaos, but it continues nonetheless, with Russia claiming late on Thursday to have captured another Ukrainian village in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, which lies directly across from Russia’s Kursk region (where Ukraine has occupied territory for eight months). Kyiv has not confirmed the Russian claim.
In a development certain to increase tensions over the coveted Horn of Africa region, Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on Thursday that Turkish Petroleum will soon begin exploring 3 onshore oil and gas fields in Somalia, covering…
Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict
Trump has accused Mexico of violating a 1944 water treaty by failing to deliver enough water to Texas, harming farmers in the south and leading to the closure of a sugar mill. Trump is threatening tariffs over the issue, also mentioning sanctions (however, tariffs and sanctions seem to be conjoined in the administration).
We are keeping a close eye on developments between Israel and Turkey, who are at dangerous odds over the future of Syria, with both external actors now homing in on Assad’s old military bases. Israel is bombing them, and Turkey is moving into them. Syria is still up for grabs, and the U.S. has not recognized any actors as the new government.
The Russia-Ukraine war has largely been forgotten amid the tariff and market chaos, but it continues nonetheless, with Russia claiming late on Thursday to have captured another Ukrainian village in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, which lies directly across from Russia’s Kursk region (where Ukraine has occupied territory for eight months). Kyiv has not confirmed the Russian claim.
In a development certain to increase tensions over the coveted Horn of Africa region, Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on Thursday that Turkish Petroleum will soon begin exploring 3 onshore oil and gas fields in Somalia, covering around 16,000 square kilometers. The move follows a new agreement signed between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation and the Somali Petroleum Authority in Ankara. Initial exploration will involve seismic surveys, with drilling to follow as part of efforts to uncover and develop new energy resources in the region.
As the civil war rages on in Sudan, neighboring South Sudan is now also back on the edge of war. (Land-locked South Sudan produces the bulk of the oil, while Sudan has the export connection.) Late on Thursday, Chinese oil workers (Sinopec) were ordered to leave the country for their own safety, as South Sudan’s president relieved his foreign minister of his duties following a spat with Washington. Tensions are rising between South Sudan’s President (Salva Kiir) and First Vice President (Riek Machar). Machar has accused government forces of targeting its members after placing Machar and his wife (interior minister) under house arrest, along with other government and military figures aligned with the opposition. In the event of a civil war, South Sudan’s oil would be at risk and likely flows would be halted. Oil production was halted due to the lack of export options in war-ravaged Sudan and had only resumed in late January. Currently, South Sudan is pumping around 90,000 bpd.
Discovery & Development
Saudi Aramco announced the discovery of 14 new oil and gas fields across the Eastern Region and the Empty Quarter, potentially boosting production by over 80 million cubic feet of gas and 8,000 barrels of oil per day. While modest relative to Saudi Arabia’s massive reserves, the finds are seen as a clear sign of ongoing expansion in the Kingdom’s energy sector.
China’s state-owned CNOOC has discovered a significant offshore oilfield—Huizhou 19-6—in the eastern South China Sea, with estimated reserves of up to 110 million tons. Located about 106 miles off Shenzhen, the field sits at an average water depth of 328 feet and extends into deep and ultra-deep layers. Drilling at these depths is expected to pose technical challenges.
Shell has begun production at its Dover oil development, located about 170 miles off the Louisiana coast in the Gulf of Mexico. Sitting in 7,500 feet of water, Dover is the second subsea tieback to Shell’s Appomattox hub, following the Rydberg field, which came online in February 2024. Discovered in 2018, Dover is Shell’s sixth find in the deepwater Norphlet play. The well reached a depth of 29,000 feet and encountered 800 feet of oil-bearing rock. The project includes up to two wells connected by a 17.5-mile pipeline and is expected to peak at 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with estimated recoverable resources of 44.5 million barrels.
Deals, Mergers, & Acquisitions
The biggest deal-making story of the week wasn’t a deal that’s about to be made … It’s about a lot of deals–the hard-won consolidation of the American shale patch–that are now being lamented. Shale boss Bryan Sheffield called on U.S. shale producers to scale back drilling as oil prices plunge. Sheffield said the market was a “bloodbath” and that he planned to delay new drilling (not make the American shale patch great again).