Just one day away from a historic Final Four which pits four No. 1 seeds against each other, the Blue Zone makes the case that the “chalkiness” of this year’s NCAA Tournament is a good thing for college basketball:
For just the second time in NCAA Tournament history, the last four teams standing are all No. 1 seeds. This year’s tournament has featured no true “cinderella”, and there were only a handful of true upsets across the bracket. That is, this is the only tournament other than 2008 where one filling out a bracket by “betting on chalk” -– only picking higher-seeded teams to beat the lower-seeded teams — would have given you a perfect Final Four.
To some, this chalk is exactly what is wrong with college sports, and the game should stay the same to allow for more upsets, more drama and more intrigue. The lack of upsets may indicate that NIL or the transfer portal is ruining the pureness of the game — a game that would regularly see the Loyola-Chicagos of the world put themselves on the map. A game that allowed D.J. Burns to shine bright.
The madness arguably peaked in 2023, with a Final Four consisting of No. 4-seed UConn, No. 5-seeds Miami and San Diego St, and No. 9-seed Florida Atlantic. The only problem? This resulted in the lowest-viewed national championship game in recorded history, with just 14.69 million people watching the Huskies win the title.
Then, the following year, head coach Dan Hurley’s squad made it back to the title game, this time taking on No. 1-seed Purdue, led by that year’s National Player of the Year in Zach Edey. But in that final clash of the 2024 tournament, the Huskies dominated the Boilermakers, completing the team’s unstoppable run in which UConn won every game by over 10 points while never trailing in the second half of a game. It’s also worth noting that before facing the Huskies, Purdue steamrolled Burns and No. 11 N.C. State. Is that even madness?
2024 marked the first tournament in which the women’s national championship brought in more viewership than the men’s. The historic turnout stood as a hopeful sign of a growing fanbase behind women’s sports, and the topheavy nature of the women’s tournament made its national championship more exciting. An undefeated South Carolina squad took on Iowa and women’s college basketball’s “Golden Child” in Caitlyn Clark, whose importance in the growth of women’s sports cannot be understated. With both top seeds and sound storylines, there was plenty of madness without the underdog.
Yes, underdog stories make for great drama and intrigue, and the NCAA Tournament continuously provides some of the best — but only to an extent. Double-digit seeds knocking off their opponents in the first or second rounds are reminders that no team is safe — but as they advance farther in the tournament, the luster tends to fade. It is simply no longer the best basketball available. If the goal of a massive tournament and bracket is to determine the best team in the country, four No.1 seeds in the Final Four means it’s doing its job.
So now let’s look to San Antonio. Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston earned their bids to the “Alamo City” with ease, each having a strong case to be this year’s champs.
Auburn’s veteran core — led by National Player of the Year contender Johni Broome — stood strong against historically good SEC competition and rode through much of the season as the top-ranked team in the nation.
By now, the world is quite familiar with the Blue Devils; a freshman trio headlined by potential National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg and surrounded by a veteran cast makes Duke both talented and reliable in head coach Jon Scheyer’s first trip to the Final Four.
Florida boasts a hot-handed offense which runs through perhaps the most dangerous guard in the country, Walter Clayton Jr., whose 30-point night handed the Gators a five-point victory against Texas Tech en route to the Final Four.
Finally, Houston brings a physically-imposing veteran squad who hasn’t dropped a game since early February, and whose dominance through conference play mirrors the Blue Devils’.
Perhaps the problem isn’t so much the excessive presence of chalk as it is simply that there are four elite teams who can only be beaten by themselves. Each of this year’s Final Four squads rank in the top 10 all time in KenPom efficiency. Duke is number one. Simply put, these four teams are some of the best we have ever seen. Whoever wins the title has a chance to be the best statistical team of all time.
For the first time in years, the Final Four is wide open and a true four horse race. The idea that this isn’t madness is simply foolish.
So is the thought that there are no storylines. While cinderellas can be seen as novelties, and rightfully so, this year features plenty of drama. Florida head coach Todd Golden is in just his third season with the Gators, and has taken them from a first-round NIT exit to the brink of a national championship. But friends have become foes, as Golden’s former boss, Bruce Pearl, leads the team on the other side of the court.
Duke seeks its first national title in 10 years, and the program is anxious to return to glory. Disappointed from last year’s Elite Eight exit to Burns and N.C. State, Jon Scheyer is back in position to get his first banner and solidify himself as the best young coach in the game. But in his way stands another familiar opponent, as Houston seeks its first national championship and revenge for last year’s Sweet Sixteen defeat to the Blue Devils. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has almost 800 wins and plenty of conference titles, only missing a national championship trophy.
Each team wants that trophy, and each can get it. If that isn’t dramatic enough, what is?
As the ball is tipped in the Alamodome Saturday evening, don’t gripe over the fact that there’s no mid-major. Don’t toil with the lack of a cinderella. Instead, relish the historical moment. Recognize that this high quality of competition likely won’t happen for a long time. Just sit back and enjoy the madness.
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