MKHULULI DLEVU | South Africa cannot rely on Western nations to dictate its energy future

The recent withdrawal of the United States from the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) indicates that South Africa cannot rely on Western nations to dictate its energy future. 

The JETP was established as an international initiative to support South Africa's transition from a coal-dependent energy system to a more sustainable and renewable energy framework, with funding commitments from international partners. 

The Presidency has confirmed that the US has formally withdrawn from the partnership, where it initially pledged over $1.5 billion in grants and commercial funding.

The US Embassy communicated the decision on 28 February, citing executive orders that President Donald Trump issued in January and February. 

The US, once a key player in the International Partners Group (IPG) that launched the JETP alongside South Africa at the 2021 Glasgow COP summit, has now abandoned its commitment and further exposed the unreliability of these so-called global partners in addressing our nation's energy crisis.

This withdrawal reaffirms the urgent need for South Africa to reclaim control over its energy sector. The country cannot afford to be at the mercy of fickle foreign interests that prioritise their economic and geopolitical agendas. 

Instead, South Africa must aggressively pursue energy sovereignty through increased state ownership in nuclear energy projects and the cancellation of all independent power producers (IPPs), both renewable and non-renewable, ensuring that energy expansion benefits the people, not private corporations.

South Africa holds 35,053 million tons of proven coal reserves, ranking 8th worldwide and accounting for about 3% of the world's total coal reserves. 

The country's coal reserves are estimated at 53 billion tons, providing almost 200 years of coal supply at the present production rate. In 2020, South Africa's proven coal reserves amounted to roughly 9.9 billion metric tons. 

The largest coal deposits in South Africa are found in the Ecca deposits, a stratum of the Karoo Supergroup dating from the Permian period, between 280 and 250 million years ago. The Ecca Group covers around two-thirds of South Africa, with the northern and northeastern portions being coal-bearing and containing more than a third of all coal reserves in the Southern Hemisphere.

South Africa’s coal industry is deeply embedded in the national economy with 78 operational coal mines, 65 of which are concentrated in Mpumalanga, producing 80% of the country’s total coal output. Eskom, the state-owned power utility, relies heavily on coal, with 11 of its 14 coal-fired power stations located in Mpumalanga, providing 70% of Eskom’s total capacity. 

While coal mining accounts for only 0.5% of total employment, its role in power generation, manufacturing, and industrial production sustains thousands of jobs across various sectors. These include chemicals, petrochemicals, and the coal-to-liquid fuel industry.

In light of this, the push for energy diversification through nuclear power must be led by the state, not profit-driven private corporations, to ensure energy security, job protection, and industrial sovereignty. 

Allowing the private sector to dictate South Africa’s energy transition would only entrench capitalist interests at the expense of workers and economic independence. The approximately 106,887 direct and indirect jobs linked to the coal sector cannot be sacrificed in the name of privatisation and reckless energy policies.

The State must maintain control over coal while strategically developing nuclear power as a long-term, sustainable energy solution, ensuring that workers in coal-linked industries are not displaced but rather absorbed into the evolving energy landscape. South Africa’s energy future must be driven by a State-led industrial policy that prioritises economic freedom, employment security, and national development over foreign and private sector interests.

Expanding coal-fired power generation will ensure energy security and economic stability, allowing South Africa to harness its abundant natural resources rather than depending on foreign-led energy transitions that threaten local industries and livelihoods. Any move towards eliminating coal without a feasible, large-scale alternative will only exacerbate load shedding, economic downturns, and energy instability.

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon energy source that produces minimal greenhouse gas emissions during operation. Currently, about 11% of the world's electricity is generated from nuclear power, with approximately 450 nuclear reactors in operation globally. 

In September 2023, there were about 410 nuclear power reactors in operation in 32 countries, with 57 nuclear power reactors under construction. Nuclear power plants are a significant source of clean and reliable energy. State ownership in nuclear energy aligns with the principle of nationalising key industries to prevent profit-driven decision-making that may not serve public interests.

Given South Africa’s historical challenges with electricity supply and load shedding, nuclear energy offers a stable and reliable alternative to diversify the country’s energy mix. Countries like France and China have successfully leveraged State-led nuclear programmes to ensure long-term energy security.

Currently, South Africa has Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, with its two pressurised water reactors (PWRs), which contributes about 5% of South Africa’s electricity supply. Operated by Eskom, Koeberg has been in operation since 1984 and is currently undergoing a life-extension programme to continue functioning until at least 2044.

The South African government has expressed interest in expanding nuclear energy as part of the country’s Just Energy Transition, but progress has been slow due to political, financial, and logistical challenges. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 outlining the country’s energy strategy includes 2,500 MW of new nuclear capacity, but implementation has been uncertain. 

The high cost of building new nuclear plants has been a major barrier, with estimated costs reaching R1 trillion (approximately $55 billion). The financial and operational difficulties that Eskom faces have made large-scale nuclear expansion difficult. Previous nuclear procurement deals faced legal challenges due to a lack of transparency and concerns over corruption.

Nuclear energy demands significant investment, specialised expertise, and long-term planning. South Africa's existing financial constraints and governance concerns in State-owned enterprises (SOEs) like Eskom raise questions about the state’s ability to effectively manage large-scale nuclear projects without inefficiencies, mismanagement, or cost overruns. However, there is still a need for a well-regulated, partially state-owned model, ensuring technical expertise and financial sustainability.

South Africa must develop a state-owned nuclear sector in partnership with BRICS nations, ensuring that the country holds over 50% ownership with a buy-back option over time.

However, with the promotion of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) by the ANC government over time, it is not certain that this will occur under their leadership. These producers operate on a profit-driven model that often leads to higher energy costs for the public.

While IPPs have been promoted to diversify South Africa’s energy mix, their dominance has undermined Eskom's ability to provide affordable and accessible electricity. IPPs prioritise private interests over public benefit, contributing to the increasing cost of electricity while limiting state control over energy production.

The Economic Freedom Figgters (EFF)’s call to cancel renewable and non-renewable IPPs is rooted in concerns over privatisation and potential exploitation by private corporations. IPPs operate for profit, which could lead to higher energy costs and reduce government control over a critical sector.

Furthermore, reliance on private energy producers might weaken efforts to create a centralised, state-controlled energy strategy that seeks to prioritise affordability and accessibility.

The only way to ensure energy security and economic growth is to expand coal-fired power generation while developing a state-owned nuclear sector for the future.

Rather than allowing foreign interests to dictate South Africa’s energy policies, the government must take decisive action to protect its resources and industries. The key is not to reject alternative energy solutions outright but to integrate them in a way that maximises public benefit while safeguarding the country’s economic future.

Mkhululi Dlevu is a Member of the EFF Central Command Team.