Murray's Mailbag: Is Nevada men's basketball poised to be nation's top mid-major program?

This week's Monday Mailbag starts with a bold question about whether Nevada men's basketball is poised to be the nation's top mid-major program. But first, let's brag about my NCAA Tournament bracket. Thanks, as always, for the inquiries.

Ha! Apparently I did considering the Final Four is all No. 1 seeds and the Elite Eight included four No. 1s, three No. 2s and a No. 3. Honestly, going fairly chalk is the way to win these things. The upsets are fun, but those are usually small ripples in the waves that are better-seeded teams beating lower-seeded teams.

You know Gonzaga exists, right?

If we consider teams not in the Big 4 (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) plus the Big East (for basketball only) as the power conferences, Gonzaga is clearly the best mid-major in college hoops.

But you could argue Nevada has been a top-10 mid-major of the 21st century. Since 2000, the Wolf Pack has won 12 conference championships; played in nine NCAA tournaments; won six Big Dance games; reached two Sweet 16s; sent 11 players to the NBA; and had three coaches jump to the power-conference level. That's a great history that I don't think everybody, even some within the program, recognize. Over the last 25 years, Nevada probably is in the top-10 of mid-majors along with Gonzaga, Memphis, San Diego State, VCU, Saint Mary's, Utah State, Dayton, Loyola Chicago and Wichita State. Some of those names you could quibble on, but I'd have Nevada in the top 10, or just outside.

That's the past, however, and you asked about the future. Gonzaga stays at No. 1 followed by San Diego State and Memphis. Those are your top three for sure. So, Nevada is not the top mid-major in college basketball moving forward, and honestly has been about the sixth-best Mountain West team over the last half-decade. But you're asking about future potential, and that will come down to money. We don't know how much money the Wolf Pack is going to revenue share in men's basketball, and we don't know how much NIL money Nevada will have. There were rumors of the Grand Sierra Resort kicking in a good chunk of money, but those rumors would buy you one good player these days as NIL prices have raised. I don't expect the GSR to bankroll a top-level mid-major NIL budget. To be in the mix as a top-five mid-major program, Nevada would need about $4 million in NIL/revenue sharing a season. The infrastructure is there with a new practice facility (opened in 2017), a $12 million locker room/players lounge (opened in 2024) and a potential new $380 million arena (could open in 2027).

Nevada is well funded for a MW school but not well funded when compared to what would be required to have a regular Top 25 rosters, the standard for the nation's top mid-major program. Unless Nevada gets around $4 million a year in revenue sharing/NIL, it's not going to be the nation's top mid-major. And that figure would be the starting point. Then you'd need to coach up the roster to hit its potential, never easy in the transfer portal/NIL era. Bottom line — Nevada has been a top-10 mid-major from 2000-25, although not from 2020-25, and it's going to take a lot of money to simply remain a top-10 mid-major from 2025-35 let alone move up those rankings, especially with the post-2026 MW looking a lot more like a one-bid league than the four-plus bid league the MW has been the last four seasons.

My all-time Mountain West starting five and backups is (Steve Fisher is our coach):

PG Isaiah Stevens, Colorado State/Marcus Banks, UNLV

SG Jimmer Fredette, BYU/Caleb Martin, Nevada

SF Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State/Danny Granger, New Mexico

PF Jordan Caroline, Nevada/Larry Nance Jr., Wyoming

C Andrew Bogut, Utah/Jason Smith, Colorado State

Sixth Man Sam Merrill, Utah State/Tyson Degenhart, Boise State

Not a lot of Division I transfers on that list.

If we're just doing a MW transfer portal additions starting five, it'd be:

PG Cody Martin, Nevada

SG Caleb Martin, Nevada

SF Danny Granger, New Mexico

PF Jordan Caroline, Nevada

C Great Osobor, Utah State

I'll say zero, but there's a non-zero chance the answer is one. We'll be monitoring the Fresno State situation closely and there are a couple of coaches in the league who have been trying to get new jobs for the last couple of years. So, there could be more movement, but a bigger domino will likely have to fall first.

I always treat one year of data as an anomaly. We can't draw too much information from one NCAA Tournament. The sample size is too small. Last year's Final Four included UConn, Purdue, Alabama and NC State, which had NET rankings entering the tournament of 2, 3, 9 and 63. So, there were two teams in there that you wouldn't have expected.

Jarod Lucas shoots at an NBA level (41.1 percent from three in the G League this season), but his size and defense will be picked apart by NBA executives, which will want him to have more playmaking skills at 6-foot-4, which is more point guard size than wing size in the NBA. If you look only at the regular-season G League stats, Lucas' 43.2 percent shooting from three ranked 15th in the league. That's great and could get him a call up at some point. But, for now, he's headed to Spain to play for Bàsquet Girona of Liga ACB. There's more money overseas, and there's a lot of politics involved in getting called up to the NBA from the G League. I'm still shocked Cameron Oliver didn't have a long NBA career, although he has done well for himself in Australia.

USC over Boise State. Eric Musselman vs. Leon Rice again!

(These games started today, so hopefully neither of those teams have been knocked out by the time you read this.)

As I noted in a Mailbag earlier this year, there is precedent for a two-bid Mountain West in the NCAA softball tournament, but that's happened just once with the current membership (2015 when Fresno State and San Diego State both made it). This year, the MW has four teams in the top 60 of the RPI, including Nevada (38), San Diego State (39), Fresno State (54) and Boise State (59). San Diego State and Boise State have more robust non-league résumés in terms of quality wins. If the MW is going to get two teams into the NCAA Tournament, one of those two is likely getting the at-large. Nevada is 20-0 in Quad 3 and 4 games but 2-4 in Quad 1s and 4-5 in Quad 2s with six of those nine games and four of those six wins against MW foes. If you're the Wolf Pack, you can't feel comfortable with the selection committee giving you the benefit of the doubt in an at-large situation. Nevada had an RPI of 45 last year and wasn't even close to making the NCAA Tournament field thanks to the lack of Quad 1 wins (2-6). I'll give it a 30 percent chance the MW is a multi-bid league.

The spring sports have definitely raised the level of competitiveness for Nevada with baseball tied for first in the Mountain West and softball and women's tennis each tied for second. That's a positive development for the department, which will try and end the season on a high note with its first conference title since April 2022. Between those three teams all having two shots each at a title (regular season and tournament), Nevada should raise a trophy this April/May.

Now that we're in the transfer-portal era, a lot of career records look unreachable because star players aren't spending four years at the same school. I'll give you a few career records I don't see being broken:

* Frank Hawkins' career rushing yards (5,333)

* Trevor Insley's career receiving yards (5,005)

* Greg Grouwinkel's career interceptions (20)

* Nick Fazekas' career points (2,464)

* Chris Starr's career points (2,356)

* Tre Coleman's career games (148)

* Gary Powers' career wins (937)

In terms of single-game or season records:

* Chris Starr's single-game points (53)

* Trevor Insley's single-season record (2,060)

* Chance Kretschmer's single-game carries (45)

* Nate Burleson's single-game receiving yards (326)

* Tyler Bosetti's consecutive games with a homer (nine)

* Pete Padgett's single-season rebounds (462, 17.8 per game)

That last one is probably the most untouchable. Nobody is getting 18 rebounds per game, and good luck hitting a homer in 10 straight games to break Bosetti's mark. That remains a crazy feat considering Bosetti hit nine homers in nine straight games and 10 homers combined in his other 177 games.

I think it will be settled, and my guess is around $100 million. The settlement will not include a merger (that's the point of the litigation). And a scheduling alliance doesn't make much sense from a legal standpoint, but I'm sure these conferences will still schedule each other.

I thought I saw some construction going on as we drove Saturday to Handel's Homemade Ice Cream at the Summit (highly recommended, by the way). My guess is it would be the $2.5 million softball field project in South Reno, which I wrote about in December. That soccer stadium proposal got spiked, so it's not that. But I'll see if I can find out anything more.

Nevada football was scheduled to do a practice at Incline High last fall but that fell through with the team just taking a non-practice trip to Lake Tahoe instead. So, it could happen.

I got that question in last week's Mailbag and checked, and there are no Wolf Pack alums in the UFL this season. I believe that's the first year of the USFL/UFL without a Nevada alum on a roster.

The University of Wisconsin-Green Bay went 4-28 overall and 2-18 in the Horizon League (last) in Doug Gottlieb's first season as the team's head coach. The Phoenix lost in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament to Oakland, 96-72. The team ranked 332nd out of 364 Division I teams, per KenPom. Green Bay was 18-14 overall and 13-7 in the Horizon the year prior under Sundance Wicks, who last season was Wyoming's head coach. That's what a good coach looks like.

Last month, I did a roundup of locals in the pros heading into spring training, which you can read here. Five players with local ties made opening-day rosters, including OF TJ Friedl (Nevada), Reds; UTL Garrett Hampson (Reno High), Diamondbacks; UTL Miles Mastrobuoni (Nevada), Mariners; LHP Cade Povich (Born in Reno), Orioles; and LHP JoJo Romero (Nevada), Cardinals. LHP Ray Kerr (Hug High) is on the Braves' 40-man roster.

Among the local minor leaguers are 1B Trenton Brooks (Nevada), Padres; RHP Skylar Hales (Reno High), Rangers; LHP Robby Snelling (McQueen High), Marlins; OF Cal Stevenson (Nevada), Phillies; LHP Christian Chamberlain (Reno High), Royals; OF Carson McCusker (Spanish Springs High), Twins; RHP Kade Morris (Nevada), Athletics; RHP Connor Noland (Bishop Manogue High), Cubs; RHP Blane Abeyta (Nevada), Braves; LHP Ryan Anderson (Spanish Springs High), Yankees; RHP Grant Ford (Nevada), Pirates; UTL Josh Zamora (Nevada), Marlins; OF Jace Avina (Spanish Springs High), Yankees; RHP Peyton Stumbo (Nevada), Pirates; OF JR Freethy (Nevada), Blue Jays; INF Ryan Jackson (Nevada), Padres; RHP Jason Doktorczyk (Nevada), Twins; 2B Gunner Gouldsmith (Reno High), Athletics; and RHP Cam Walty (Nevada), Guardians.

Yes, UNLV basketball coach Josh Pastner looks like John Francis Daley, who played high school freshman Sam Weir on "Freaks and Geeks" and Dr. Lance Sweets on "Bones." He also co-wrote "Game Night," "The Incredible Burt Wonderstone," "Vacation," "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves," "Horrible Bosses" and "Spider-Man: Homecoming." UNLV fans are hoping for more Spider-Man or Horrible Bosses kind of work from Daley's doppelganger (that's like reaching the Elite Eight) than Burt Wonderstone or Vacation quality work (that's like playing in the CBI).

Time for me to go rewatch Horrible Bosses. See y'all next week!

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.