‘Challenging’ time ahead for power grid as electricity demand to soar by 45pc in next decade

Data-centre growth will drive most of the increase, but it will also come from the growing use of heat pumps and electric vehicles.

EirGrid, which runs the national power system, said the outlook was “challenging” and there were likely to be “system alerts” which occur when electricity demand comes close to outstripping supply.

It said there were some immediate power supply concerns for the 2025-2027 period when stand-by emergency generators may have to be put into action.

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“The electricity industry will have to find new ways to meet the increasing need for energy without relying mainly on fossil fuels,” EirGrid said.

However, it added there was likely to be a delay in achieving the Climate Action Plan targets for new renewable energy projects, in particular the ­powerful offshore wind farms on which the targets heavily rely.

It also said its forecast of electricity demand growth may be an underestimate as it was completed before the formation of the new Government.

“The Government puts emphasis on accelerating housing supply which will increase electricity demand,” the company said.

Overall, the “increasing tightness between supply and demand” that EirGrid had warned of annually since 2016 remained an issue.

“There is no question that the current outlook, based on the best information available, remains challenging,” it said.

“It is likely that in the coming years the system will experience a number of system alerts.”

It said EirGrid and SONI, its counterpart in Northern Ireland, “will need to work proactively to mitigate the risk of a more serious impact”.

The warnings come in EirGrid’s Resource Adequacy Assessment for the 2025–2034 period, which is published today. It highlights again the pressures the rapid expansion of data centres is placing on the national electricity supply.

“A key driver for electricity demand in Ireland for the next number of years is the connection of data centres and other new technology loads,” the report said.

That demand, expected to represent 27pc of total electricity usage at the end of this year, is estimated to reach 31pc of a much larger electricity output by 2034.

That will eat up a large proportion of the output from new wind and solar farms scheduled to come on line by then.

Only data centres that already have approval are included in the assessment.

Dozens more are at proposal stage, although a new policy has been recommended by the energy regulator that could mean data centres have to provide their own power plants in order to get approval. The electrification of transport and heating will also have an effect on demand.

Electricity needs for heat pumps is forecast to rise from 3pc of all electricity demand this year to 10pc in 2034, while the demand from electric cars will rise from 1pc to 8pc.

Much of that increase is expected towards the end of this decade, but power supply strains are expected sooner than that.

For the 2025-2027 period, stand-by emergency generators bought by the Government in recent years may have to be put into action.

The generators, which are essentially large jet engines, are located in Dublin and the midlands and were bought for emergency use after fears of power outages increased in recent years.

From 2028-2032, the tightness is expected to ease because the new Celtic Interconnector – an undersea power cable that can bring electricity from France – will be up and running, while new gas-fuelled power stations are due to be completed.

However, while there is expected to be sufficient power to operate under normal conditions, there would be a “gap” under more challenging conditions such as an extended outage of an interconnector.

From 2032-2034 there is expected to be a shortfall of supply under even normal conditions. However, Eoin Kennedy, EirGrid’s director of innovation and planning, said the reason for flagging the issue now was so there was time to address it.

“The changing demand and generation supply landscape will require coordinated management of both the volume and type of new capacity, alongside new ways of managing increasing demand to ensure security of supply,” he said.

Future power supply will not only have to be able to cope with increased daily demand, but also a substantial increase in peak-time demand.

Demand hit a new record on January 8 this year when the intense cold spell pushed the usual tea-time peak to over 6,024 megawatts, the first-time demand ever exceeded 6,000MW.