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Fears Russia may attack Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after dam sabotage – but risk can be mitigated, say experts

Ukraine's security chief has said the destruction of the Khakhovka dam marks a 'fundamentally new stage of Russian aggression'

Ukrainian officials and military experts expressed fears that Russian forces could cause a nuclear disaster by destroying Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, following the destruction of Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant on Monday.

The head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, Oleksiy Danilov, told The Times that the disaster, which caused flooding across the surrounding region, marked a “fundamentally new stage of Russian aggression”.

Mr Danilov added that “since Putin had the hydroelectric power plant blown up on his demand, he is ready to do anything,” and repeated a Ukrainian claim that explosives had been installed at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP).

Dr Kristian Gustafson, a military intelligence specialist at Brunel University, suggested the risk was real but could be mitigated through pre-emptive action.

“Russia has already stepped over a significant red line for minor tactical gains,” he told i. “I think the highest echelons of the Russian leadership would realise this would harm them as well but a local commander might not.

“This is not beyond the realms of possibility but the risk can be mitigated if the international community strongly suggests that it is monitoring closely and this would be bad for Russia.”

There has been no confirmation of responsibility for destroying the dam but Ukraine and Western analysts believe Russia is to blame.

Those concerns were echoed by former British Army colonel and i contributor Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who said that Russia had “no red lines” and could use the ZNPP as an “improvised nuclear weapon”.

Russia is in an increasingly “desperate position,” said Mr de Bretton-Gordon.

The destruction of Kakhovka dam came as Ukrainian forces stepped up a counteroffensive across the front line to liberate occupied territory, with Russian correspondents and commanders expressing concern over territorial losses.

Russia has consistently attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missiles and drones. Vladimir Putin has made a series of nuclear threats, stating that attacks on Russian territory would be a red line, and that he considers the annexed regions of Ukraine – which the counteroffensive aims to liberate – to be such territory.

“Russia’s plan is to attack the infrastructure of Ukraine… to try to bring it to its knees,” said Mr de Bretton-Gordon.

Why are there fears of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia?

Ukraine has been raising the alarm over a possible sabotage at the plant since the early days of the war when Russian forces took control of it, with fighting reported in the surrounding areas.

Russia has also accused Ukraine of “provocations” at the facility including the use of “explosive-laden drones…detonated in the vicinity of critical infrastructure.”

In May, Ukraine’s nuclear watchdog said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had told them Russian forces were “storing military equipment, weapons and explosives in the turbine compartment of power unit No 4 of the ZNPP.”

The IAEA has not independently confirmed the claim. Newsweek subsequently quoted a comment from the body that it “has not reported that explosives have been placed in reactor unit 4 at ZNPP”.

But the IAEA has constantly emphasised the ongoing risks of military activity around the plant.

“We are fortunate that a nuclear accident has not yet happened,” its director, Rafael Grossi, said last month. “We are rolling a dice and if this continues then one day, our luck will run out.”

How much damage would the destruction of ZNPP cause?

In the case of the ZNPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe with a larger power output than Chernobyl, the fallout would affect Russia and Russian-held territory – and potentially Moldova, Belarus, Romania, and Bulgaria – as well as Ukraine, with poisoning radiation spreading across eastern Europe.

The plant is believed to contain more than 1,200 tons of nuclear fuel which could contaminate the atmosphere.

Radioactive waste could also contaminate the water supply, spreading the effects even further.

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