In the wake of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the reopening of coal-fired power plants triggered fears that the energy crisis would deal a severe blow to the fight against global warming in Europe. That worst-case scenario seems to have been avoided. According to a report by the think tank Ember, published on Tuesday, January 31, 2022, Europe has instead seen an acceleration in the deployment of solar and wind power, with the crisis having only a "minor effect" on coal-fired power generation.
In 2022, wind and solar together produced more electricity (22%) than coal (16%) in the European Union (EU), but also more than gas (20%) – a first. "All fears of a coal comeback are now dead," insisted Dave Jones, head of data analysis at Ember. "Not only are European countries still committed to phasing out coal, they're now also working to phase out gas."
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, coal use did jump, increasing by 35% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. But this trend has not continued. In the last four months of the year, electricity generation from this fossil fuel was lower than it was a year earlier. According to Ember's count, the 26 coal-fired generation units brought back online operated at only 18% of their capacity in the last quarter. The think tank also noted that the EU used only one-third of the additional 22 million tons of coal imported in 2022.
France, a net importer
All in all, the balance sheet is still negative. Coal-fired power generation increased by 7% in 2022, contributing to a 3.9% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector. "It could have been much worse: wind, solar and a decline in electricity demand prevented a much larger return to coal," the report said.
The year 2022 was actually marked by two major phenomena. Firstly, with Europe experiencing its worst drought in at least five hundred years, hydroelectric generation reached its lowest level in over twenty years (down 19% compared to 2021) – France was one of the most affected countries. Then, nuclear production also reached its lowest level in history (down 16% compared to 2021). This was due in particular to the shutdown of an unprecedented number of French reactors for maintenance operations and corrosion problems, as well as the gradual closure of the last German plants.
Historically Europe's largest electricity exporter, France was a net importer in 2022. "Without France's problems, it's highly likely that coal-fired power generation would not have increased in Spain," wrote the report's authors. "France also likely contributed to part of the increase in production in Germany."
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